Fiscal Notes May 19, 2006
Fiscal Notes April 11, 2006
Fiscal Notes March 2, 2006
Fiscal Notes February 9, 2006
Fiscal Notes March 2008
Fiscal Notes April 2008
Fiscal Notes December 2008
Fiscal Notes January 2009
Fiscal Notes Special Edition January
Fiscal Notes February 2009
Fiscal Notes March 2009
Fiscal Notes May 2009
 
We are delighted to return our regular Fiscal Notes newsletter to you, now with an updated look and expanded content. Please feel free to contact us at 212-482-2320 with comments or questions. We’re here to help you!
 
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FEDERAL NEWS
 
States Seek Dialogue with Obama Administration
 
As President-elect Obama works with congressional leaders to outline an economic stimulus package of unprecedented proportions, state legislators are hoping to shape the conversation about where recovery funds are directed.
 
A Perfect Fiscal StormAs a result of the mortgage crisis and its subsequent fallout, state governments face the most dire economic circumstances on record in the last quarter century. The National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) and the National Governors Association (NGA) this month released their Fiscal Survey of the States that outlined the states' bleak fiscal situation.  Revenue collections in corporate, personal income, and sales taxes are below projected amounts, and nominal state spending is expected to decline.

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, at least 44 states need to close budget gaps this and/or next year, and ongoing volatility in the financial markets means current deficits are likely to grow. New mid-year shortfalls in 37 state budgets now need to be closed, including all of the Eastern Regional Conference member states.
 
dec_budget_deficits
 
A Seat at the Table
Following a December 2nd meeting with President-elect Obama, the nation's governors were hopeful that they had been heard. "The state and federal governments must be partners in developing remedies that will lead to a speedy economic recovery," said CSG President Governor M. Jodi Rell of Connecticut. The governors also asked that the federal government eliminate the 20 percent match that states are required to pay for infrastructure projects. 
 
A Piece of the PieIn addition to a formal request by the NGA for $176 billion, individual governors and other interest groups are composing federal wishlists. The U.S. Conference of Mayors has requested $73.2 billion for city construction projects. Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Governor Jim Doyle of Wisconsin met separately with top members of the incoming administration on December 11th; Governor Patrick has compiled a list of $3.4 billion in potential projects in his state. Also on the 11th, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, Vermont Governor Jim Douglas, and Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle testified before the House Appropriations Committee, where Governor Corzine said states could use up to $100 billion for day-to-day operating expenses, in addition to requests of $40 billion for Medicaid and $136 billion for infrastructure projects. New Hampshire has a $200 million list of ready-to-go projects; New York has a $300 million wishlist.

The Sooner the BetterState legislators face difficult decisions in the coming months. Even as they struggle to close mid-year FY2009 gaps, states face even larger projected shortfalls in FY2010. Though their requests for assistance may vary, however, states agree that the stimulus funds cannot come soon enough.
 
REGIONAL NEWS


Capital Gains: Revenues and Risks 

The non-partisan research organization Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth (MassINC) released a new report this month about the impact of a dramatic drop in capital gains tax revenue on the state budget.
 
Massachusetts' Fiscal Vulnerabilities
Massachusetts' budget is especially sensitive to a capital gains decline because of its reliance on income tax receipts and the predominance of financial services in the state, which ties the budget's fate -- for better or worse -- to that of the stock market. Furthermore, capital gains -- profits individuals earn on the sale of their capital assets and investments -- are one-time, unpredictable events that take place for the most part within a very narrow segment of the tax base.
 
Governor Deval Patrick has confronted a budget deficit of more than $2 billion in FY2009; meanwhile, $1.5 billion of the budget was funded with expected capital gains revenues, most of which are now uncertain. In 2007, capital gains made up 11% of taxpayer income in Massachusetts; from 2002 to 2006, capital gains accounted for 54% of the state's tax revenue growth.
 
Stemming the Damage
While it is too late to prevent the current damage, MassINC has recommendations for policymakers to lessen capital-gains related risks in the future: 

  • Limit the state budget's reliance on capital gains receipts
  • Establish a capital gains reserve account to spread the use of capital gains revenues throughout the budget
  • Use any revenues above that account cap to increase the state's existing stabilization funds
  • Dedicate any revenues above and beyond this rainy-day fund to one-time projects in line with long-term policy priorities
  • ReImprove capital gains records and forecasts
  • Broaden the tax base, with particular attention to the sales tax

How Vulnerable is the Northeast? 
Table 1 indicates how Eastern Regional Conference member states rank relative to all 50 states in terms of the importance of capital gains revenues to their respective budgets, in 2006 (the most recent available data). 

Table 1.
StateRank
Connecticut2
Delaware24
Maine22
Massachusetts3
New Hampshire41
New Jersey13
New York5
Pennsylvania29
Rhode Island27
Vermont37

Sources: MassINC, The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government
View the entire MassINC report.
 
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Using Up Unemployment
 
For the first time since the 1980s, states are having to borrow from the federal government to prevent using up all of their unemployment funds. According to the
New York Times, 30 state funds are close to insolvency. States establish unemployment rules within a federal structure that provides supplementary support in times of extreme fiscal difficulty. 
 
Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania all have fewer than four months before their funds are expected to reach zero; Massachusetts and Rhode Island have eight more months each; and Delaware has another 12 months. The labor department recommends that states have at least one year in of peak-level benefits in their unemployment trust funds.
 
Among the Eastern Regional Conference member states,
Rhode Island has the highest unemployment rate as of October 2008 (the most recent data available). Maine's unemployment rate is at its highest level in 14 years; New Jersey's rate is at its highest in 12 years. New Hampshire is the only northeast state whose unemployment rate is particularly low relative to the rest of the nation. Table 2 indicates seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in all Eastern Regional Conference states for Octobers 2008 (the most recent available data) and 2007.

Table 2.

State% Unemployed October 2008*% Unemployed October 2007
Connecticut6.54.8
Delaware5.43.5
Maine5.74.9
Massachusetts5.54.3
New Hampshire4.13.3
New Jersey6.04.2
New York5.74.6
Pennsylvania5.84.4
Rhode Island9.35.1
Vermont5.23.9
*preliminary
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
STATE NEWS 

CONNECTICUT  
Governor Rell announced that the legislature will convene five days early in January to vote on the new budget. Connecticut has a mid-year shortfall of $356 million. 

Rell to state: Cut More - Republican American - December 9
Amid preparations for a new two-year budget proposal, Governor Rell sent budget requests back to the state's agencies, boards, and commissions, asking them to make further cuts. Rell's budget analysts estimate a $356.3 million shortfall for the 2009 fiscal year, and have projected a $6 billion deficit over the next two fiscal years. The governor will present the new budget plan to the state's General Assembly in February.
 
 
DELAWARE 
Governor-elect Jack Markell held a town hall meeting to hear ideas from state employees about how to close Delaware's budget gap.

As Deficit Widens, State Finds Ways to Close Gap - News Journal - December 16
Moving a Medicaid payment from the last day of the month to the first will help close the state's FY2009 budget gap, although it shifts the payment to FY2010 and increases the coming budget deficit to $560 million.
 
Business Leaders Offer Markell Tips - News Journal - December 4
Governor-elect Markell met with the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce to get suggestions on how to support state businesses, create jobs, and grow public-private partnerships. Drawing on methods employed by President-elect Obama's meeting with the country's governors, Markell asked business leaders to give specific recommendations to improve the state economy. The meeting produced a laundry list of proposals for consideration, among them a revised RFP process, opportunities for state defense contractors to win upcoming federal projects, and regional partnerships to be positioned more competitively.
 
Outlook for Del. Economy in '09 Dim - News Journal - December 3The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia painted a bleak economic picture in 2009. The state's leading measure of economic activity was at the lowest monthly point in its 29-year history, with -3.4% growth for October. The index also posted -2.4% growth over the last year, the worst 12-month measure since the Philly Fed started tracking trends in the state's GDP. Pennsylvania and New Jersey's leading indices for October were -0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. An analyst with the Fed included the caveat that the index could be unpredictable in a smaller state such as Delaware.
 
 
MAINE 
Maine Budget Cuts Outlined - Boston Globe - December 16Governor Baldacci seeks to close a budget gap of more than $140 million with job cuts, tax law changes, and borrowing against the state's rainy day funds. The state must still find ways to minimize the FY2010 two-year budget shortfall of $838 million.
 
 
MASSACHUSETTS
 
A pay increase for 30,000 human services employees has been postponed indefinitely by the Patrick administration. Most of the workers make around $25,000 per year; the raise amount would total about $23 million. 
 
Forecast Deepens Fiscal Gloom - Boston Globe - December 16
The state's Department of Revenue says tax revenues will decline by $750 million, raising the total mid-year budget gap to an estimated $2.1 billion. Massachusetts already closed a $1.4 billion gap in October without cutting any local funds, but is unlikely to avoid such cuts in this second pass.
 
A Gambling Problem: Mass. Might Take Pass - Union Leader - December 15Governor Deval Patrick is withdrawing his own proposal to develop three additional casinos in the state, citing the recession.
 
Patrick Admits State Budget Leaner Than He Thought - Associated Press - December 4In his monthly radio broadcast, Governor Patrick said that "there's nowhere the amount of fat that people think there is" in the state budget. Patrick said he would consider raising the 23.5 cents-per-gallon gasoline tax as part of a reform of the state's transportation programs.
 
 
NEW JERSEY 
Corzine Looking for Another $1.2B to Cut from Budget - NorthJersey.com - December 17Governor Corzine said the state will probably need to find more than $1.2 billion in spending cuts to close the FY2009 budget shortfall, since tax revenues were $459 million below expected for the first five months of the year. The state has already located $400 million in cuts and will need to find an additional $800 million by next month.
 
N.J. Bills Would Allow Ads on School Buses to Fund Education - Star-Ledger - December 15State legislators have put up at least three bills since January to allow school districts to raise money using their school buses as ad space.
 
 
NEW YORK
 
While increasing income taxes on the wealthy has been a budget-balancing method of last resort, Governor Patterson says it may become a necessity.
 
New York is among a list of states whose economy includes a structural deficit, where its revenue regularly falls short of service expenses. Downturns such as the current recession can be an opportunity to examine states' tax structures. 
 
Paterson Proposes Austere Budget to Close Deficit - New York Times - December 16
In an attempt to close an estimated $15 billion budget deficit, the largest in New York's history, Governor David A. Patterson proposed 137 new taxes and fees (including on sugary soft drinks), fewer gambling restrictions, and $9 billion in spending cuts. 
 
New York Pays Back $800 Million in Business Tax - New York Times - December 1While New York City has already had to pay out $800 million in prepaid taxes to local companies, Albany paid out $1 billion in corporate refunds during the first 10 months of 2008. As a result of the financial crisis, corporations that had prepaid their taxes for the year based on estimates of better performance are recalling those funds now. The refunds compound an already bleak budget situation in the state.
 
 
PENNSYLVANIA
 
An audit commission disclosed the surplus, followed immediately by calls to release the money into the state's general fund.
 
Rendell Blasted for Eyeing 'Green' Funds - TheMorningCall.com - December 12
Governor Rendell received a letter from 14 state environmental groups opposing his proposal to use funds intended for state conservation programs to close the growing budget gap.
 
Rendell Unveils His Plan to Deal with Rising Deficit - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - December 10Governor Ed Rendell presented a six-point proposal aimed at reducing the state's deficit, which stood at $658 million as of November 30th and was projected to reach $1.6 billion by fiscal-year end. Rendell proposed using half of Pennsylvania's rainy day fund ($375 of $750 million); asking the federal government for $450 million; cutting $464 from state agencies directly under his control and $36 million from agencies not directly under his purview; using $101 million in "lapses," or funds that remain unspent from previous-year budgets; and appropriating $174 million in shale revenues from companies leasing underground lands from the state.
 
Fiscal Woes Zap 13,600 State Raises - Patriot-News - December 4
Freezing salaries for the rest of the fiscal year for 13,600 managerial and other non-union state workers will save $14.3 million. 
 
 
RHODE ISLAND
 
Legislators are considering enforcing taxes on goods and services currently excepted from the state's 7% sales tax. 
 
The agreement would establish a $12 billion spending limit on the state's Medicaid program over a five-year period. In exchange for placing the limits, which will save the federal government funds, Rhode Island would receive more flexibility in determining how to spend its Medicaid funding.
 
The Governor-appointed panel presented preliminary recommendations aimed at restructuring the state's tax codes, including reducing the state's corporate income-tax rate, eliminating business-related tax credits, reducing the number of tax brackets for individuals, and changing the treatment of capital gains income.
 
A Shortage of Answers on the Budget Deficit - Providence Journal - December 3
The House Finance Committee questioned state department heads about spending beyond their budget targets. Departmental overspending accounts for $80 million of the $357 million mid-year budget shortfall.

 
 
VERMONT
  
Governor Douglas is maintaining his resistance to higher taxes after a series of legislative hearings from constituents who would be affected by raising tax rates. 

Legislators to Weigh Variety of Budget Cuts - Rutland Herald - December 16Lawmakers consider a variety of cuts to General Fund appropriations, including reducing financial aid at the University of Vermont, eliminating chiropractic coverage, and eliminating staff in the state treasury office.

State Mulls Education Money to Pay for Roads - Associated Press - December 11
Vermont's tax commissioner projects a $20 million education fund surplus for next year. Governor Jim Douglas is thinking about applying the funds to infrastructure projects, but opponents think it should be used to reduce property taxes.

In This Issue
Federal News
Regional News
Transportation News

TRANSPORTATION FINANCE NEWS

Treasury Data Show U.S. DOT Misrepresenting Highway Trust Fund SituationThe American Road and Transportation Builders Association counter the Federal Highway Administration's claim that the decline in vehicle miles traveled in 2008 accounted for the $3 billion drop in highway account revenues.
 
By a 48% to 42% margin, Massachusetts residents would prefer higher gas taxes to higher tolls.
The higher fares are expected to raise an additional $20 million in revenue.

P.A. Turnpike Tolls to Increase 25 Percent - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - December 10The January increase will raise the annual revenue from turnpike tolls by about $120 million, to $738 million.

R.I. Gov's Panel Suggests Tolls, Higher Taxes, Fees - Associated Press - December 4
Rhode Island could become the first state in the nation to implement open-road tolling in a move to raise revenue.

Rell: Tolls Won't Be Used to Balance Budget - Associated Press - December 4
As Governor Rell considers options to cover the state's deficit, she says reinstating tolls on Connecticut highways is not an option. Tollbooths on state bridges and I-95 were dismantled after an accident 20 years ago; toll revenue was replaced by taxes on gasoline.

New Turnpike Partnership Could Give Mass. Cash - Associated Press - December 3
Government officials heard testimony on the advisability of leasing the Turnpike Authority. A nonprofit group found the Turnpike to have the highest operating and management costs in the country, 79% of every dollar collected as opposed to the national average of 40%. 
  
Rell: Falling gas prices harm Conn. Tax revenue - Associated Press - December 1
The sharp drop in gasoline prices has caused an estimated loss of $100 million in revenue for the state's current fiscal year.
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The Council of State Governments | Eastern Regional Conference